My Analysis of the New Hampshire Primary

4 Minute Read

Donald Trump prevailed over Nikki Haley tonight in the New Hampshire Primary. As I write this analysis, he has 54% of the vote, and Haley has 43%. One of the most interesting exit poll data in the first two races is the number of voters who believed the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Nearly 50% of GOP voters in New Hampshire believe Biden’s presidential victory was illegitimate. This view has driven Trump’s success and placed him in the role of an incumbent, which is nearly impossible for a challenger to dethrone.

Another compelling exit poll result centered on his fitness to lead if he is convicted of a crime. A remarkable 54% of New Hampshire voters indicated they would believe that he would still be fit to serve as president if he is convicted of a crime. This data continues to prove the strong support he possesses from his loyal base.

Immigration materialized as the biggest issue for Republican voters in New Hampshire and a reason for their support of Trump. According to the Associated Press, among those in New Hampshire who named immigration as their top priority, about three-quarters support Trump. New Hampshire’s primary voters agreed with Trump on the need to limit immigration and build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.

However, a problem for Trump going forward is voters who would be dissatisfied with his nomination. More than a third of Republican voters in New Hampshire would be dissatisfied if he were to win the nomination. This specific fact could show a fatal weakness for the former president’s bid to win back the White House.

Haley, in her speech, spoke of her resolve to continue fighting for the nomination. In these situations, money is the bigger determiner of a continuation for a candidate in a presidential race. However, the next primary is in her home state of South Carolina, where she was a governor. As we get closer to that election on February 24th, will Trump agree to debate Haley?