My Analysis of the Iowa Caucus
5 Minute Read
At 11:00 pm
All three candidates spoke to their supporters and viewers before midnight in New Hampshire. The election turns to the Granite State, where Haley will look to compete with Trump, on January 23rd. Trump spoke and acted as if he was already the nominee. DeSantis spoke briefly about the spirit of America and the history of freedom. Haley used the opportunity to campaign directly to New Hampshire voters, who hopefully stayed awake to watch her speak. Trump is the clear front-runner, and Haley seems to be the best alternative to a “Biden and Trump Nightmare” as she elegantly pressed.
Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his campaign after finishing fourth place in the Iowa Caucus. He nominated Donald Trump.
At 9:50 pm
Trump proceeds to hover around 50%, with 65% of the overall vote counted. The surprising data from the exit polls is Trump’s success with college graduates. He leads with 36%. Haley performed well with voters who considered Biden’s 2020 election as legitimate.
At 9:15 pm
Trump continues to have more than 50% of the vote. DeSantis spent far more money and time in Iowa than Haley. However, Haley continues to trail him by only one percent. If Haley is able to finish second, she will enter New Hampshire with real momentum and a chance to compete with Trump there. The primary will then move to her home state of South Carolina with a chance to be the sole challenger to Trump.
At 8:10 pm
CNN declared that Donald Trump won the Iowa Caucus. However, the former president needs a definitive win to justify his view that the nomination is rightfully his. Governor DeSantis (FL) and former Governor Nikki Haley (SC) continue to battle for second.
Trump’s supporters said the issue of “fights for people like me” was their primary concern. Haley’s supporters identified the issue of “having the right temperament” as their primary reason for voting for her.
Haley and DeSantis are currently above 20%. If either candidate only loses by 10-15% to Donald Trump, that would be a huge upset and a PR loss for the Trump campaign, and should make the New Hampshire Primary a massive showdown.
